Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. The Office Is Far Away. Can Its Culture Survive?

Peter Oumanski

Peter Oumanski

American companies are experimenting with new ways to replicate the camaraderie that once defined day-to-day life inside an office as a pandemic-induced period of remote work approaches three months—with no clearly-defined end in sight.

Millions of workers have proved they can do their jobs at home for now—sometimes surpassing their productivity in the office. But as more managers come to accept the reality that employees may be apart for a while longer, they are fretting about how they can instill culture and encourage innovation when employees who once spent days together now rarely see each other in person.

“It’s the foremost concern,” says Daniel Lubetzky, founder and executive chairman of snack-bar maker KIND LLC. “None of us really knows how this movie will play out if it continues like this for much longer.”

2. CRE, Tenants Prize Office Space Flexibility In Post-Pandemic Era

Breather

Breather

The ways in which American employers think about work space are changing as the world slowly reopens. Companies are likely to re-evaluate both the type and amount of space they lease in the coming years. The tendency to sign long-term leases may be replaced by the search for more flexible lease arrangements. And companies seeking square footage may want spaces at once both more private and less dense than co-working environs.

Having thought a lot about these changes is Bryan Murphy, CEO of New York City and Montreal-based private and flexible workspace provider Breather, a company with more than 500 offices it makes available to customers by the hour, day, week, month or year. Murphy believes the shift in the nature of office space will have to be more dramatic than simply placing clear plexiglas dividers between desks in an open workspace.

The three big workplace challenges in the short term are architecture/design, fixtures and operations, he feels. "Design is about distancing, making sure people are six feet apart," he says. "Fixtures is about plexiglas dividers and hand sanitizing machines. Operations is where it really gets complex. As a tenant, we have to split shifts [and] screen visitors. And for commercial property owners, it's really about adhering to the CDC guidelines."

3. Remote Work Forever? Not So Fast, Jobs Guru Says

ARND WIEGMANN/REUTERS

ARND WIEGMANN/REUTERS

Alain Dehaze knows a lot about jobs, and he’s not sold on remote work.

The 57-year-old Belgian has insights into the world of work as head of Adecco GroupADEN +1.79% one of the world’s largest providers of temporary employment, outplacement services, headhunting and retraining services.

Many companies have recently trumpeted the promise of working from home as demonstrated during the coronavirus pandemic. Mr. Dehaze sees the benefits but also risks.

“Remote work is unfortunately creating a social distance that we should not have,” said Mr. Dehaze, though he sees no return to workplace normalcy until a vaccine is widely available.

Adecco has studied a dozen leading economies’ responses to the health crisis, aiming to identify policies that yield superior results. To jolt economies back to life, governments must invest about 10% of gross domestic product—and do it quickly, Adecco concluded.

4. Using the Past to Predict CRE Pricing

While most investors have the phrase ‘past performance is not indicative of future results,’ memorized, the truth is it can still help to look at the past to understand future performance, according to Omar Eltorai, market analyst at Reonomy.

“While the last recession is not the same as the current, it is still helpful to acknowledge the historical experience—even if only to bookend our expectations,” Eltorai says. “This recession has different drivers which include a health crisis, business crisis, liquidity and solvency issues, shift in consumer behaviors and political disruption in both the foreign and domestic spheres.”

Eltorai cites the cause of the crisis, consumer and business financial health preceding the crisis and the speed and scale of government intervention as the main differences between 2008 and today. “All of these differences mean that pricing will likely not move the same as the last recession,” he says. “On one hand, the macroeconomic picture is much more dire than that of the last recession, which would suggest deeper and longer pricing declines.”

5. Here’s how coronavirus may change how Big Tech works

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Tech companies have traditionally been at the forefront of revolutionizing office space. Open floor plans have become the norm in many industries after tech companies touted the advantages they offer for collaboration and innovation. And perks like in-office gyms, child-care centers and communal cafeterias have also gained traction as companies compete to attract top talent. 

But, the coronavirus may make this type of work environment a thing of the past, at least for the near future.

In an investigation recently published by South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, out of the 216 people who worked on the floor of a call center, 94 people tested positive for the virus. And employees are concerned. 

A recent survey by insurance company Prudential found that, of more than 2,000 full-time employees surveyed, 66% believe their work site will need to be restructured to create more personal space. Forty-nine percent believe that open offices and workspaces are no longer conducive to their health and wellness.

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. Nice to Meet Me

iStock-1139348408.jpg

A group we are talking to regarding representation asked us to come by and see their office space. In the pre-pandemic world this would be a joyous question to get and we’d answer with an enthusiastic yes.

I agreed to the meeting, of course, but I confess I had to manage through my own trepidation. This would be my first in person business meeting in over 10 weeks and the virus still rages out there. My last business lunch was (appropriately) on Friday the 13th of March. Since then, it’s been me, my video calls and two snoring pugs all day every business day. But if I’m honest with you I was thinking about myself and my own concerns. Me me me.

The day of the meeting I put on broker business attire and my kids thought I’d lost my mind. Even the dogs looked at my funny. I got into my car and felt strange actually driving to a business meeting. I drove to the address through what seemed like Sunday morning level of traffic, which is to say virtually none.

When my team arrived a few minutes early (each in our own cars), I called them and asked an apparently simple question; should we show up in the space wearing a mask?

2. Atlanta Sublease Availabilities-The Canary in the Coal Mine

iStock-1193104474emptyoffice.jpg

Whenever bad news happens in the world, one of the canaries in the coal mine for real estate is the availability of subleases. So, I’ve been getting a fair number of questions about activity in this area.

The crack research team at Cushman & Wakefield Atlanta, lead by Christa DiLalo and assisted by Riley McMullan, swung into action to find answers.

The report card says subleases are up significantly and going to continue to rise. Available sublease space in Metro Atlanta has increased 15% since Q1 20, and 46% since Q1 19. Sublease availabilities are currently at their highest point in this economic cycle. And it is widely assumed that Macy’s will put 90.000 s.f additional on the market after they announced they will not open their Midtown tech center.

The ratio of sublease availability to total vacancy continues to rise, with sublet space now accounting for 6.5% of the total in Metro Atlanta. In Q1, the sublease share of total vacant space grew for the fourth consecutive quarter, and Q2 is on track to see similar gains.

3. Office Tenants Pay Rents at Near Normal Levels Despite Coronavirus, REITs Report

Thaddeus Rombauer/CoStar

Thaddeus Rombauer/CoStar

The coronavirus pandemic that prompted companies across the Sun Belt to close their offices hasn't disrupted the ability of the commercial tenants of Cousins Properties and Highwoods Properties to pay rent.

Cousins, an Atlanta-based real estate investment trust that owns 19.4 million square feet of office space in the Sun Belt, said 96% of its office and retail tenants paid rent in May, an increase of 1 percentage point from April. On the office side, 97% of its tenants had paid May rent, up from 96% in April, Cousins said in an investor presentation. In March, before the full effect of the pandemic hit, its office rent collection was 98%.

Raleigh, North Carolina-based Highwood Properties reported 99% of its office tenants paid rent last month, the same percentage that paid in April. Highwoods owns more than 28 million square feet of office space from Richmond, Virginia, to Tampa, Florida, to Pittsburgh.

Office owners across the country had braced for a large drop in rent collections because of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus. On May 1, Cousins said rent collections in the coming months could potentially be more challenging than April as the full economic impact of the health crisis comes into view.

4. Why Georgia’s reopening hasn’t led to a surge in coronavirus cases (so far)

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Most experts agreed that it’s important not to conclude too much from the current data. It’s still early in the process, given the coronavirus’s incubation period and how long it can take to spread. It’s still possible that things will get worse.

“What I and others were saying back at the end of April is we’re not going to really see anything until June,” Eleanor Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University, told me. “I think that’s still the case.”

There’s also the real possibility of data manipulation. Georgia has not proven itself to be above this. Until recently, it was including a type of test into its test count that experts say shouldn’t be included. It has also, for example, published a chart that switched dates in a way that, deliberately or not, made the state’s data look more favorable.

5. Luxury Developers Ramp Up Virtual Offerings for Stir-Crazy Renters

Dorothy Hong/Wall Street Journal

Dorothy Hong/Wall Street Journal

With the novel coronavirus and strict social-distancing mandates confining New York City residents to their apartments, Mr. Sheehan’s job—keeping his residents connected through a steady diet of events, activities and treats—has gotten a lot more challenging. When they are not planning virtual events, social directors like Mr. Sheehan have become a lifeline for stir-crazy renters, offering tips on which local stores have fresh fruit and short lines, and hooking up online activities for children.  

“It helps them navigate trickier times, understanding that there are people here supporting them,” Mr. Sheehan said of the renters.

That Friday morning, he had set out white bags of neatly packaged ingredients in the lobby, tagged with the apartment numbers of residents who nabbed, free of charge, the 35 spots in the limited workshop. Before the lesson began, he checked in with Ken Connors, head chef of City Cooking West End, to make sure the chef’s webcams had good angles on his butcher block and stove.

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

Nice to Meet Me

iStock-1139348408.jpg

A group we are talking to regarding representation asked us to come by and see their office space. In the pre-pandemic world this would be a joyous question to get and we’d answer with an enthusiastic yes.

I agreed to the meeting, of course, but I confess I had to manage through my own trepidation. This would be my first in person business meeting in over 10 weeks and the virus still rages out there. My last business lunch was (appropriately) on Friday the 13th of March. Since then, it’s been me, my video calls and two snoring pugs all day every business day.  But if I’m honest with you I was thinking about myself and my own concerns. Me me me.

The day of the meeting I put on broker business attire and my kids thought I’d lost my mind. Even the dogs looked at my funny. I got into my car and felt strange actually driving to a business meeting. I drove to the address through what seemed like Sunday morning level of traffic, which is to say virtually none.

When my team arrived a few minutes early (each in our own cars), I called them and asked an apparently simple question; should we show up in the space wearing a mask?

We decided to proceed into the office building carrying masks. Showing up with masks on our faces if the executives didn’t have there’s on could send the wrong message. IF they had their masks on, then we could quickly don ours.

We entered the lobby and saw the security team in full PPE. Despite all the calls I’ve attended on return to the office I hadn’t taken the time to even think about how we would enter. Fortunately, we simply walked through the suburban office building lobby.  I hit the elevator button with an elbow. As we loaded the elevator, we each grabbed our own corner. The ride was over in about 10 seconds and we piled out to the group’s offices.

The executives greeted us, and wouldn’t you know it, they were NOT wearing masks. I was immediately happy that we only carried ours in. We sat in a huge board room very spread out. When we took a tour of the empty offices, we carefully walked in a very spread out manner. It is harder to keep a distance on a tour than I had imagined.

We ended with a friendly business wave, because no one shakes hands anymore. Maybe ever.

Human interaction is still and will always be critical in a sales conversation. There are many non-verbal cues that we send and receive in meetings and in person is by far the best way to communicate.

While my initial concern about safety was focused on my own health, I realized that we have to be acutely sensitive to the concerns of others in the days and weeks ahead. As I learned, a little planning will go a long way in the months to come. As a matter of fact, this whole meeting thing is about alot more than me!

I’ve been thinking about this meeting as a learning opportunity and how I can do better the next time. Here are some questions I will ask to ensure a virus safe environment and as comfortable as possible meeting.

I like to call these clusters of questions the Safe Seven for In Person Meetings:

1. Are masks required or optional and will you be wearing yours? Is there any other required PPE we should wear to put you and your team at ease?

2. What is the building entry and exit procedures? Will I need to present ID or can we be pre-screened? Should we expect temperature checks? How long should we allow to get through a check point and be on time for our meeting?

3. Does your company have rules about safe office usage that we should review in advance? We don’t want to unknowingly violate a rule or convention.

4. Is there a meeting room we can use that is large enough for us to safely hold our conversation? How many people will attend the meeting from your team and what will the total room load be?

5. Can we present information electronically (handing out printed collateral could be a germ minefield)

6. Will employees be in the workspace and if so, what is the safest way to walk a floor and not interrupt their work? Is pedestrian traffic diverted into a one-way pattern?

7. Is there anything else you can tell us about your safe work plan (this is a good catch-all to make sure we didn’t miss something.)

I sincerely hope that very soon we can go back to living a normal life and want to put Covid-19 in the history books. Till then, in person requires careful advanced planning. And I now firmly know it isn’t all about me – it’s about us and our collective comfort and safety.

Stay safe and let me know if you will be wearing your mask when we meet.

 

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. Simple Pleasures

iStock-1156431448.jpg

We’ve had a little bit going on, haven’t we? An intense focus on struggle and crisis can have a deep effect on one’s psyche. Just ask the street cop on a tough beat or a firefighter at a busy house that deals with the depths of human misery every day.

As I write this, I sit on my back deck overlooking a nice sunset, birds chirping and all apparently well in the world. Only it isn’t. There are people suffering from sickness and sweltering economic issues. Business are failing and sadness pervades our land like a morning fog rolling on and on.

But what are we to do? Worry and anxiety are destructive emotions that lead to nowhere. If you are reading this, then you are a leader and we have a responsibility to get our own heads and hearts straight. Then we can become helpful to those closest to us. And to those who will become close. Now is a time to make friends of former acquaintances and to draw in deeply to relationships.

As George Burns said once, “If you ask what is the single most important key to longevity, I would have to say it is avoiding worry, stress and tension. And if you didn’t ask me, I’d still have to say it.”

2. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warns about the consequences of embracing remote work permanently

GeekWire Photo / Kevin Lisota

GeekWire Photo / Kevin Lisota

Microsoft is not taking the same financial beating as many of its peers due to the pandemic. Revenue jumped 15% in the first quarter of 2020, Microsoft Teams users increased by more than 70% in April, and the company’s stock price is up 14% this year.

But financials aren’t everything to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. He is still concerned about the changes to work that the coronavirus crisis is forcing. Nadella spoke with the staff of the New York Times this week about the challenges he’s navigating as Microsoft’s leader.

“What I miss is when you walk into a physical meeting, you are talking to the person that is next to you, you’re able to connect with them for the two minutes before and after,” he said.

3. Survey indicates that small businesses are optimistic despite COVID-19

sydney-rae-geM5lzDj4Iw-unsplash-1.jpg

Though Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is running amuck in the political world like one of those signs at restaurants that say “unattended children will be given ice cream and a puppy,” Facebook continues to effectively build an online community of more than 2.6 billion people worldwide – including more than half of the population in the United States. Given their audience and ease of access to business owners, they decided to use their powers for good for once to survey small and medium businesses.

The survey returned responses from 38,078 business owners and managers, 39,104 employees, and 8,694 personal enterprises in the United States (total of 85,876 respondents). Respondents’ industries spanned manufacturing, retail, services, logistics, hospitality, construction, and agriculture. Thirty-three percent of businesses were urban, forty-two percent were urban, and twenty-five percent were rural.

Here’s where it gets depressing: thirty-one percent of businesses reported closing in the last three months, with 71 percent of those closing since March 1. For personal businesses, 52 percent are closed. Of those businesses still operating, 60 percent reported a reduced workload, and 60 percent also report struggling with finances. Employee wages, bills, and rent were the top areas of financial concern.

4. CRE Economists Think Current Recession Won't Be as Bad as the 2008 Crisis

Nearly 40 real estate economists and analysts feel the COVID-19 recession will impact real estate markets and values less severely than the 2008 financial crisis—except for retail and hotel real estate.

The economists predicted there will be a $275 billion decrease in real estate transaction volumes in 2020, according to a survey in May by the Urban Land Institute. But they expected transaction volumes to rise over the next two years, which would create a healthier capital market compared to the 2008 Great Recession.

“Real estate economists expect that while the top-line economic impact of COVID-19 will be much worse than the global financial crisis, US real estate market fundamentals and values will fare much better,” said William Maher, a leading member of the Urban Land Institute, in prepared remarks. “Only retail and hotel are expected to suffer a worse outcome.”

5. For Economy, Worst of Coronavirus Shutdowns May Be Over

PHOTO: CHRISTOPHER DOLAN/THE TIMES-TRIBUNE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

PHOTO: CHRISTOPHER DOLAN/THE TIMES-TRIBUNE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Truck loads are growing again. Air travel and hotel bookings are up slightly. Mortgage applications are rising. And more people are applying to open new businesses.

These are among some early signs the U.S. economy is, ever so slowly, creeping back to life.

Plenty of data show the country was still mired in a severe downturn in April and May, with overall business activity falling and layoffs rising—though more slowly than in the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis. Current projections have the economy contracting by 6% to 7% this year and unemployment lingering in double-digit percentages for a while. But, for the first time since the pandemic forced widespread U.S. business closures in March, it appears conditions in some corners of the economy aren’t getting worse, and might even be improving.

“If this is the only wave [of coronavirus], it looks like we’ve bottomed out and the normalization process has begun,” said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

Atlanta Sublease Availabilities-The Canary in the Coal Mine

A Blank Canvas

A Blank Canvas

Whenever bad news happens in the world, one of the canaries in the coal mine for real estate is the availability of subleases. So, I’ve been getting a fair number of questions about activity in this area.

The crack research team at Cushman & Wakefield Atlanta, lead by Christa DiLalo and assisted by Riley McMullan, swung into action to find answers.

The report card says subleases are up significantly and going to continue to rise. Available sublease space in Metro Atlanta has increased 15% since Q1 20, and 46% since Q1 19. Sublease availabilities are currently at their highest point in this economic cycle. And it is widely assumed that Macy’s will put 90.000 s.f additional on the market after they announced they will not open their Midtown tech center.

The ratio of sublease availability to total vacancy continues to rise, with sublet space now accounting for 6.5% of the total in Metro Atlanta. In Q1, the sublease share of total vacant space grew for the fourth consecutive quarter, and Q2 is on track to see similar gains.

Since the beginning of March, 37 new sublease listings have hit the market in Metro Atlanta. Large availabilities added in April include Merchant e-Solutions’ full floor in Buckhead, and nearly 20,000 sf listed by Asbury Automotive Group in Georgia 400. Additional sublease space is expected across Metro Atlanta in the upcoming weeks and months.

But there are some qualifications to the doom and gloom. 57% of current sublease vacancies are under 10,000 s.f.. Only five currently available spaces are greater than 50,000 and they comprise only 16% of the total vacant subleases being marketed.

Oh, and many of the largest sublease offerings in Metro Atlanta do not have significant term remaining. These options were clearly made available pre-Covid.

One thing to watch: Coworking operators currently lease nearly 2.2 MSF across Metro Atlanta, comprising 1.5% of total inventory and 5.1% of the Midtown Class A inventory. While I do not have visibility into the vacancy rates within these spaces, it is important to understand potential shadow vacancy within coworking spaces. Coworking listings do not factor into Cushman & Wakefield statistics but the research team will continue to monitor for shifting trends in this space type in addition to traditional sublease space marketed by corporate users

So, yes subleases are up and co working space is at risk in some quarters as well. But just like bread in the bakery, subleases burn off at expiration. At this point, the pace of new subleases in a large market like Atlanta is a trickle, not a stream.

But we better keep our waterproof boots at the ready.

Click here to view the report

Simple Pleasures

iStock-1156431448.jpg

We’ve had a little bit going on, haven’t we? An intense focus on struggle and crisis can have a deep effect on one’s psyche. Just ask the street cop on a tough beat or a firefighter at a busy house that deals with the depths of human misery every day.

As I write this, I sit on my back deck overlooking a nice sunset, birds chirping and all apparently well in the world. Only it isn’t. There are people suffering from sickness and sweltering economic issues. Business are failing and sadness pervades our land like a morning fog rolling on and on.

But what are we to do? Worry and anxiety are destructive emotions that lead to nowhere. If you are reading this, then you are a leader and we have a responsibility to get our own heads and hearts straight. Then we can become helpful to those closest to us. And to those who will become close. Now is a time to make friends of former acquaintances and to draw in deeply to relationships.

As George Burns said once, “If you ask what is the single most important key to longevity, I would have to say it is avoiding worry, stress and tension. And if you didn’t ask me, I’d still have to say it.”

So, as a thought experiment I reversed “virus thinking” to focus on some simple pleasures that have arisen in my life from the world’s largest work at home experiment. Here are 14 things that came to mind right away:

1)      No commute and the margin this provides

2)      The efficiency of transition from meeting to meeting…clicks instead of steps or drives

3)      A shared bond with fellow businesspeople who are also trying to figure this out

4)      All the meaningful and sometimes unexpected conversations I’ve had with so many about life in 2020

5)      Family dinners, every night

6)      Deepening relationships with neighbors

7)      Time to reflect on life and what we are all doing in it

8)      New and meaningful time with my spouse

9)      Talking with my children about really important things but also having some laughs

10)  Watching small businesspeople in my community rally to the crisis

11)  Watching neighbors in my community support small business

12)  Seeing light at the end of the tunnel on beating this sickness

13)  Admiring and thanking those in my network who are healthcare heroes

14)  Looking forward to a new and better world after Covid-19 is defeated

When people ask you how you are doing, you can certainly speak your mind. It’s OK to be honest.

But give your soul a break as often as you can and recognize that there are many simple pleasures in life. You don’t have to have fancy vacations or big dinners out to be happy, after all. Karen Marie Moning said, “It's funny how, when things seem the darkest, moments of beauty present themselves in the most unexpected places.” 

I hope you can take a break from the big bad world and focus on happy small things. Then smile.

Those in your life will appreciate it. And your psyche will as well.

 

12 Things I’ve Learned During the Quarantine

Staying safe on a recent hike

Staying safe on a recent hike

At the bottom of one of my recent blogs during this pandemic I shared a list called 12 things I’ve learned during the quarantine. I got a nice response back so I thought I would republish the list in a stand alone in hopes that it might brighten your day.

My learnings during the great quarantine of 2020:

1.      How to spell quarantine

2.      People say “this time is different” in every crisis. Because they are all different.

3.      Government officials can and do change their minds. Remember when masks weren’t required?

4.      Fear is more dangerous than any virus.

5.      We finally learned how to wash our hands.

6.      Getting out of your PJ’s and athletic wear and dressing for work is essential.

7.      Don’t cuss when your technology fails because we may be able to hear you.

8.      The neighbor’s lawn crew is really loud, and do they really need to come twice a week?

9.     You can be absolutely, positively sure that I am on mute.

10.  You don’t have to turn your camera on. I still respect your meme picture too.

11.  I love your barking dogs across the internet.

12.  Speaking of this crazy economy, WHAT GOES DOWN MUST COME UP.

Friends, don’t allow yourself to worry in the abstract. As my grandmother used to say, “Don’t borrow tomorrow’s trouble for today.”

We will make it through this, I promise. And I’m still on mute.

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1.Asking the Barber If You Need A Haircut

iStock-180822485.jpg

The saying is used in different ways for different industries. Every surgeon sees a scalpel and every contractors’ hammer is looking for a nail.

How does this apply to commercial real estate you might rightly ask? Well in at least two ways. Let’s talk about jobs first. Here are some recent headlines;

“Millions Face Unemployment and Uncertainty” – CBS News

“April Unemployment Rate Rose to 14.7%” – WSJ

“Great Depression of 2020? US Jobless is at Least 20% or Worse” – MarketWatch

But here’s the thing; this unemployment problem and the parallel economic carnage were NOT caused by financial or credit issues like the Great Depression or the Great Recession. The economy was easing before the stay at home orders were issued in March. But the real purchase point of the downturn was caused by a VIRUS that we will defeat.

So those scary headlines talking about record unemployment should be rather obvious and a little less scary with perspective. And yes, I saw the remarks by Fed Chairman Powell yesterday. His call to action is a data point and one I hope our Congress will pay attention to.

2. Push For Supply Chain Resilience, Reshoring Likely To Boost Industrial CRE

The coronavirus pandemic has left hundreds of U.S. manufacturers examining how to bring at least some of their operations and real estate footprints home.

Nearly two-thirds of North American manufacturers say they are likely to bring production and sourcing back to the continent, a new survey by industrial data and tech company Thomas shows. The company surveyed over 1,000 of the continent's manufacturing and industrial suppliers, with the help of business-to-business data gathered on Thomasnet.com.

The U.S. manufacturing sector had seen a minor return stateside in recent years, with big domestic companies like Wal-Mart and Brooks Brothers bringing some operations back to the U.S., or "reshoring.”

3. Reopening the Coronavirus-Era Office: One-Person Elevators, No Cafeterias

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Welcome back to work. The corporate cafeteria is closed. The coffee makers are unplugged. And the desks are separated by plastic.

Every part of office life is being re-examined in the era of Covid-19. When employees file back into American workplaces—some wearing masks—many will find the office transformed, human-resources and real-estate executives say.

Elevators may only take one person at a time. Desks, once tightly packed in open floor plans, will be spread apart, with some covered by plastic shields and chairs atop disposable pads to catch germs. The beer taps, snack containers, coffee bars and elaborate gyms and showers that once set high-dollar, white-collar environments apart will likely remain closed to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Many changes won’t go away until the virus does.

4. Someday we’ll return to the office. It’ll be nothing like we’ve seen before

Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times

Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times

When you finally head back to the office, it won’t be like you remember it.

Physical distancing, from the garage to the elevator to the break room, promises to help make the pending mass return to the workplace both reassuring and maddening as people learn to work together again while remaining six feet apart.

Signs of separation will abound: decals on elevator floors showing you where to stand, arrows to route foot traffic in one direction, chairs removed from conference rooms and other popular gathering places.

5. CIOs Spearhead Well-Being Initiatives to Make Remote Work Less Remote

IBM

IBM

Chief information officers are stepping beyond their traditional roles to help spearhead employee-focused mental health and well-being initiatives during the coronavirus pandemic.

After deploying the tools to support remote work, IT leaders from companies including International Business Machines Corp., Syngenta AG and SurveyMonkey now see their job as helping to manage and monitor how working from home affects a now distant workforce.

IT leaders are having more frequent, casual virtual meetings with their own teams and sending email surveys to gauge employee well-being across the company. They also are enabling the use of tools for workers to create mental-health-focused online portals and helping to ensure employees have an appropriate work-life balance.

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

Asking the Barber If You Need A Haircut

iStock-180822485.jpg

The saying is used in different ways for different industries. Every surgeon sees a scalpel and every contractors’ hammer is looking for a nail.

How does this apply to commercial real estate you might rightly ask? Well in at least two ways. Let’s talk about jobs first. Here are some recent headlines;

“Millions Face Unemployment and Uncertainty” – CBS News

“April Unemployment Rate Rose to 14.7%” – WSJ

“Great Depression of 2020? US Jobless is at Least 20% or Worse” – MarketWatch

But here’s the thing; this unemployment problem and the parallel economic carnage were NOT caused by financial or credit issues like the Great Depression or the Great Recession. The economy was easing before the stay at home orders were issued in March. But the real purchase point of the downturn was caused by a VIRUS that we will defeat.

So those scary headlines talking about record unemployment should be rather obvious and a little less scary with perspective. And yes, I saw the remarks by Fed Chairman Powell yesterday. His call to action is a data point and one I hope our Congress will pay attention to.

If you ask a barber, I mean, an economist, what is going to happen when we shut the whole country for months, you will get a scenario much like the one we see before us now. But listen to what two term Federal Reserve Bank Chair Ben Bernanke said in the Wall Street Journal on May 11th: “Many people are suffering, but if we’re able to get..control of the virus, the economy will substantially recover and this downturn should be much shorter that the Great Depression.”

So, look past the headlines and ask the deeper question and frankly the harder question to answer; what happens when we get back to living life in a normal posture again?

There is no doubt that hospitality, retail, travel and associated industries are going to be impacted for some years to come. I can see a big dip in those industries and then a resurgence like the phoenix arising from the ashes. The desire to travel is not satiated once the need for safety is met.

On the subject of retail and restaurants, Cushman & Wakefield’s top retail economist Garrick Brown told me we were, “The most over retailed nation in the world and soon we will be under retailed.” That sounds like an opportunity for new and different retail concepts to me. Entrepreneurs will spring into action when the coast is clear.

The large blue-collar job losses will soon be followed by an echo with more job losses in white collar industries. But once again, many metrics of consumption are way, way down. For example, Tim Fletcher, a Vice President with GenRE says miles driven are down up to 40% since the crisis began. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis says consumer spending was down 7.5% in March and I’m sure we will see the number plummet further in April. So, CFOs are doing their jobs and protecting EBITDA by cutting cost as revenues are down.

But what do you think will happen when our world of consumers starts to consume again? Yes, the jobs will come back. I realize this will take time and many individuals and families will suffer. But the economy will fix itself once the nasty virus is conquered. Oh, and the government has applied record fiscal stimulus in record time, and zero interest rates to battle the crisis.

What was your second point, you might ask?

As Cushman & Wakefield executive John O’Neill likes to say, “Those of us in commercial real estate are more relevant than we have ever been in our careers.” Real estate issues are one of the foremost issues in corporate America just now. The pause in transactions will abate and those who are working hard to build relationships will reap the rewards.

Have you heard the saying “Dig your ditches to prepare for rain?” The saying emanates from the Jewish and Christian scriptures (2 Kings 3:16) and I think it is a helpful metaphor for our situation. The armies of Israel were stuck in the hot desert and were on the verge of dying of thirst. As the story unfolds, God gave the soldiers a very strange order to dig ditches. When the rain came, it all made sense…the army needed a vessel to hold the rain. Many lives were saved because action was taken in what looked like a hopeless situation.

Friends, we can look out on the hot desert all around us think about our thirst. Or we can do whatever your equivalent is of digging ditches. I bet helping those in need and reaching out to your entire business network is the “shovel” you should use right now.

I like to say your success blesses others. When you use your professional skills to solve problems you help executives and their entire workforces. When you receive the well-deserved compensation from delivering excellent service, then your company, your family and many of those hard-up retailers benefit as well. Everyone wins when YOU win.

Let’s get to digging right. Now.

iStock-180822485.jpg

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. What Goes Down, Must Come Up

heart.jpg

Is it a V, an L, a Nike Swoosh or some other “recovery” shape? I’m talking about the commercial real estate market, which as we all know, is not the stock market.

Let me start with a little story. In early September of 2008 we got the very scary news about the likely demise of the storied investment firm Lehman Brothers. I can remember the fear being palpable. I am not kidding when I say it felt like the world as we knew it was ending.

In the midst of this tsunami of bad news, I called my investment guy and asked him a simple question: Should I sell my stocks and go to cash?

He answered in an odd way. He took a deep breath and said, “Ken, do you believe the United States of America will continue to exist?” I paused and said, “Of course!” He replied, “That’s great, because if you don’t you need to buy protein bars and water. But if you do believe in our country, know the economy – and your stocks – will recover. Hold what you’ve got and just give it time.”

I reflected on that conversation a good bit last year as the stock market rallied to all-time highs. Boy, was he right.

2. A Surprising Way to Stay Resilient

DARIA KIRPACH

DARIA KIRPACH

It is an important strategy, especially now. Reminding ourselves what we’re grateful for is one of the most powerful ways we can boost what mental-health experts call the psychological immune system. Researchers use the concept to describe a set of emotional processes that help protect our mental health, just as the physiological immune system aims to safeguard our physical health. A strong psychological immune system keeps us mentally resilient.

Many things we do to strengthen our physical immune system also support us mentally, such as eating a healthy diet, exercising regularly, getting enough sleep and finding time for pleasurable activities in our day. Typically, our psychological immune system kicks in naturally, although it is sometimes compromised in people who suffer from depression or another mental illness, who have low self-esteem, or who ruminate a lot, mental-health experts say. But right now, as we’re battered with coronavirus stress, it’s important we all try to actively strengthen it.

“Our psychological immune system is like a cellphone battery—we drain it more quickly in a crisis because we use it more,” says Jacqueline Sperling, a psychologist and director of training and research at the McLean Anxiety Mastery Program at McLean Hospital in Cambridge, Mass. “So it’s important to continue to recharge it.”

3. The U.S. Is Not Headed Toward a New Great Depression

HBR Staff/Icon Communications/Getty Images

HBR Staff/Icon Communications/Getty Images

There is no doubt that the coronavirus is driving a macroeconomic meltdown around the world. In the U.S. and elsewhere, heavy job losses will likely drive unemployment figures to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Fiscal efforts to contain the crisis are pushing deficits to levels last seen during World War II. Both developments have spurred fears and commentary that the crisis is spiraling into either a depression or a debt crisis.

But is it too soon for such pessimism? The intensity of this shock isn’t in question — the depth and speed of the fall in output is unparalleled and frightening. And coronavirus will also leave a structural macroeconomic legacy if economies don’t return fully to their old growth trajectory or rates. But it’s a long way from a macroeconomic shock — even a severe one — to a structural regime break, such as a depression or a debt crisis.

Price stability is the parameter to watch — it’s the key to a favorable macroeconomic regime. A break such as a depression or a debt crisis is marked by a shift to extreme deflation or inflation, respectively, and thus a breakdown of the normal functioning of the economy. Over the last 30 years, the U.S. economy has enjoyed falling, low, and stable inflation, which in turn, has driven low interest rates, longer business cycles, and high asset valuations. But if price stability falters, there would be massive consequences for the real and financial economies.

4. 4 Actions to Be a Strong Leader During COVID-19 Disruption

Capture.JPG

Where executives focus during times of disruption and upheaval will define them as leaders.

COVID-19 is causing a humanitarian crisis of global proportions, with hundreds of thousands of lives disrupted. Sadly, we’re not nearing the end of the crisis.

In my day-to-day, I work with executive leaders and their teams on preparing for enterprise transformation. It’s no surprise that I’ve been musing for a while on what makes a great leader. In recent days, I’ve observed how COVID-19 is a test case for good and bad leadership. In my opinion, the leader’s primary responsibility is to keep the team safe, cohesive and productive. But what should a leader be focused on in the midst of a global disruption?

Leaders at any level can take four specific actions. These actions aren’t the only ones, but some of them might be missed in the rush to create an effective response.

5. Atlanta Office Performance in Downturns

Capture2.JPG

The attached is some great work by Christa DiLalo and her Atlanta research team and could be a proxy for the US market.

I love her statement at the bottom that the economy is in better shape now than during the Great Financial Crisis. She says we have better economic diversity, favorable population trends and a strong housing market.

I would add that our technology is far advanced in the past 10-11 years. Hang tough; we will get through this!

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

What Goes Down, Must Come Up

heart.jpg

Is it a V, an L, a Nike Swoosh or some other “recovery” shape? I’m talking about the commercial real estate market, which as we all know, is not the stock market.

Let me start with a little story. In early September of 2008 we got the very scary news about the likely demise of the storied investment firm Lehman Brothers. I can remember the fear being palpable. I am not kidding when I say it felt like the world as we knew it was ending.

In the midst of this tsunami of bad news, I called my investment guy and asked him a simple question: Should I sell my stocks and go to cash?

He answered in an odd way. He took a deep breath and said, “Ken, do you believe the United States of America will continue to exist?” I paused and said, “Of course!” He replied, “That’s great, because if you don’t you need to buy protein bars and water. But if you do believe in our country, know the economy – and your stocks – will recover. Hold what you’ve got and just give it time.”

I reflected on that conversation a good bit last year as the stock market rallied to all-time highs. Boy, was he right.

At the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, no less than the man nicknamed the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, addressed the current Covid crisis. He said it seems unlikely that the world will face the doomsday scenarios health wise as compared to the scary models of earlier this year. The U.S. economy will recover with time, he said. “We’ve faced tougher problems and the American miracle, the American Magic, has always prevailed. And it will do so again.”

In commercial real estate, we can take a much more deliberate approach to decision making because occupier deals take a long time and require large capital commitment. Thank goodness we aren’t day traders. I think of the whole affair as a chess game where one move can impact the whole board – and sometimes with unintended consequences.

I thought for a long time about making my own forecast of what will happen in the future. Like you, I read many articles and a lot of research. I have some preliminary ideas, but there are two unfortunate realities; I’m no economist and there are SO many variables that I’m really not sure where we will be in one year. In fact, I would suggest that no one really knows what is coming as badly as we all want to.

I equate the challenge to picking the winning team in college football at the beginning of the season. You have lots of ideas, but injuries and a million other things can happen to challenge conventional wisdom.

So instead of a risky forecast, I thought I would share with you 12 things I’ve learned during the quarantine:

1.      How to spell quarantine

2.      People say “this time is different” in every crisis. Because they are all different.

3.      Government officials can and do change their minds. Remember when masks weren’t required?

4.      Fear is more dangerous than any virus.

5.      We finally learned how to wash our hands.

6.      Getting out of your PJ’s and athletic wear and dressing for work is essential.

7.      Don’t cuss when your technology fails because we may be able to hear you.

8.      The neighbor’s lawn crew is really loud, and do they really need to come twice a week?

9.      You can be absolutely, positively sure that I am on mute.

10.  You don’t have to turn your camera on. I still respect your meme picture too.

11.  I love your barking dogs across the internet.

12.  Speaking of this crazy economy, WHAT GOES DOWN MUST COME UP.

Friends, don’t allow yourself to worry in the abstract. As my grandmother used to say, “Don’t borrow tomorrow’s trouble for today.”

We will make it through this, I promise. And I’m still on mute.

Atlanta Office Performance in Downturns

The attached is some great work by Christa DiLalo and her Atlanta research team and could be a proxy for the US market. I love her statement at the bottom that the economy is in better shape now than during the Great Financial Crisis. She says we have better economic diversity, favorable population trends and a strong housing market. I would add that our technology is far advanced in the past 10-11 years. Hang tough; we will get through this!

ATL_Office Performance.jpg

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. A Soliloquy for the Office

Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield

The nasty plague had changed everything. Or has it?

The pundits are screaming that we will all work at home, even after the sickness has left our land. The office is toast and huge portfolios of office product will be as devoid of life as a Walking Dead set.

But let me ask you a question…are you prepared to say you will never again go to a restaurant? How about a ball game? Yes, we must be able to safely attend, but when we can, I bet you will. And with gusto.

But what about the office? Well, post virus, there will of course be some changes to how knowledge workers use the office. Don’t think for a minute, though, that it is going away. Prognosticators have been predicting the end of the office market and other breathless “certainties” for decades and every time they are wrong (remember the paperless office?).

2. The Cubicle Is Back. Blame (or Thank) the Coronavirus

Getty Images

Getty Images

The cubicle is making a comeback.

As thousands of companies contemplate restarting operations, executives are weighing how best to reconfigure workspaces that have, by and large, been designed to minimize cost and foster the face-to-face interactions that can spread the deadly coronavirus.

Some companies are looking at high-tech approaches to enforce social distancing and track interactions, with location-monitoring apps and badges, artificial intelligence surveillance cameras, and high-tech health checks. Other innovations will be simpler: stickers to enforce 6 feet of distance between coworkers; staggered shifts that allow for more spacing; more regular cleanings; and of course oodles of hand sanitizer.

But one of the most important innovations may turn out to be cardboard or plastic dividers that turn open-plan offices into something more reminiscent of the 1980s.

3. Welcome back, cubicles? Longtime Silicon Valley CEO says coronavirus could kill the open office

Getty Images

Getty Images

Nothing will be the same when corporate America goes back to the office, and one longtime tech CEO believes a permanent change could be the death of the “open office.”

Carol Bartz, who led the architectural and engineering software maker Autodesk Inc. ADSK, -7.88% for a decade before heading up Yahoo Inc. during a turbulent period that began with the last recession, is known for being direct and speaking her mind. In a recent telephone interview with MarketWatch from her home in Silicon Valley, Bartz described the current age of COVID-19 as a “new game,” with “new rules” for everyone, and made a few predictions about how she expects life to change, especially at work.

“I think office space is going to change, [and] we will go back to putting shields between people,” she said, adding that, while she realizes this in the grand scheme amounts to minutiae, this is one of the many kinds of changes that CEOs are going to have to address in the future, in what will be the new life of the CEO. “We have to take the fear away from people,” she said, noting that this will probably be the first time offices will have to be designed around health factors.

4. Coronavirus Upheaval Triggers Corporate Search for Supply-Chain Technology

Similar decisions are taking place across scores of loading docks, warehouses and logistics management offices as companies of all sizes take a new look at technology that can help them adapt their operations to a changing business landscape under coronavirus restrictions.

Supply-chain upheaval from the pandemic is presenting the tech world with a sudden and unexpected proving ground for automation, digital platforms and other tools that had been low on the priority lists for companies’ logistics operations. From delivery software to mobile robots that help workers fulfill e-commerce orders, those offerings are drawing attention in industries where thin margins have often left companies clinging to older, highly manual operations.

“We’ve had countless calls from carriers saying they have shippers and drivers that want contactless paperwork” since the pandemic, said Frank Adelman, chief executive of transportation software company Pegasus TransTech LLC, which does business as Transflo.

5. Will the Work From Home Trend Impact Residential Design?

WFH-and-Residential-Design_HERO_1024px_1588103325_1024x576.jpg

Gensler’s latest workplace research shows that most people’s preferred place to work is the office, even though many felt they were most effective when they had the option to work from home or remotely for part of the week. Now that COVID-19 has forced many out of the office and into a work-from-home situation, people have had to adapt. The need for an effective home office is a trend that won’t go away anytime soon.

As working from home gains acceptance and more roles are fulfilled in remote settings, the fundamental principles of workplace design will still apply — just in a residential context. In 2008, Gensler’s research established a framework for understanding work through the lens of four modes: focus, collaborate, learn, and socialize. We discovered that workplaces that integrated spaces to support all four of the work modes saw higher levels of employee engagement. How would these same four modes apply in a work from home model?

For starters, multifamily residential buildings will need to be rethought, both in terms of dwelling units and communal amenity areas. How do we do this while still addressing these four modes? How do you focus when the kids are home? How do you collaborate effectively on video calls when you’re trying to hide the pile of dirty dishes in the sink behind you? Do you really have an ergonomic workstation when you’re sitting in a dining room chair and your laptop is propped up on a milk crate on your dining table?

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

A Soliloquy for the Office

Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield

The nasty plague had changed everything. Or has it?

The pundits are screaming that we will all work at home, even after the sickness has left our land. The office is toast and huge portfolios of office product will be as devoid of life as a Walking Dead set.

But let me ask you a question…are you prepared to say you will never again go to a restaurant? How about a ball game? Yes, we must be able to safely attend, but when we can, I bet you will. And with gusto.

But what about the office? Well, post virus, there will of course be some changes to how knowledge workers use the office. Don’t think for a minute, though, that it is going away. Prognosticators have been predicting the end of the office market and other breathless “certainties” for decades and every time they are wrong (remember the paperless office?).

Why Office Space?

Cushman & Wakefield economist Garrick Brown says the current Covid-19 pandemic spurned “a trickle up economic crisis, felt first by service workers.  But as the impacts of their financial woes trickle up through the system, …almost every sector of the economy is going to feel an impact.”  Then, as professional firms start issuing layoffs, workers will want to be highly visible. Put another way, Brown says, “out of sight, out of mind, out of a job.”

In the mid 2010s we saw a number of occupiers order people back to the office. This is because innovation is hard to maximize over a video meeting. A friend of mine calls the “aha” interactions that occur in the physical workplace “engineering serendipity.” I’ve made deals in the breakroom and had my colleagues share some fine ideas that they thought were just tossed away; I thought they were brilliant. The key to these interactions is they are unscripted and occur without warning. Hard to just happen by someone’s workspace in a Zoom.

The office projects culture and shared values. As C&W’s John O’Neill told me recently, “You can’t virtually manufacture culture.” To personify this idea of culture, think about an elite military squad vs teenagers in high school. Both have a culture defined in part by their physical environment. We’ve all had the experience of walking into someone’s office and immediately learning much about their company and their people.

Offices help salespeople deliver a message to prospects. The “marketing walk” is part of many presentations, and corporations love to have customers come in so part of the story can be told by their physical space.

Why do you think after the Great Depression many banks built branches with columns in front of buildings that were designed to look like Ft. Knox? The worried bankers wanted to project safety. This issue is still true today, even in light of massive e-commerce world. Especially in high dollar or high-risk decisions, seeing someone’s physical space provides psychological assurances that the sales promises can be delivered upon.

Offices are fun. I’ve had some great friendships develop in the office that will last a lifetime. We are humans and interacting is what we do. We have a deep seated and innate need to be together. If anything, the virus served to emphasize this need.

What Will Change

Let’s skip the return to work discussion for another time. In your mind, fast forward to when we finally have the much sought after vaccine and this thing is past us. Let’s also assume we are talking about “knowledge workers” who have control of their schedule and deliverables. Here are a few early peeks into the future.

Dedensification is going to be the rage. The virus popped up so suddenly and in such a terrifying manner that for some years to come, we will need our personal space and lots of it. Meeting rooms will of course be bigger and huddle rooms are no more. I personally think workstations will look like mini offices with floor to ceiling separations. Plus, high value workers will have one more reason to demand a private office – safety.

Ambiwork comes to the fore. What is this, you ask? Psychologist developed a term for people who present characteristics of both introversion and extroversion – ambiverts. We will indeed work at home more because (a) we can and (b) our remote work technology will improve even faster as a result of Covid-19. Put your capitalist hat on; there are many technologists who rightly see gold at the end of this virus rainbow. But we will continue to head into the office, because (a) we can and (b) see narrative above. We will simply have more flexibility and better tools to work anywhere on the planet.

The coming race to wellness will be like nothing we’ve seen yet. The architects and furniture types stand to make a fortune with new workstyles and all manner of products to clean, clean, clean. The HVAC folks will spin up all kinds of clean air machines, misters and the like, and the elevator engineers’ heads are spinning so fast you can see the steam. Much innovation is happening now and will be rapidly deployed later in 2020. I think 2021 could be the year of Mr. Clean.

It Will Be Fun to Watch

In 1897 a rumor swirled around London that the great Mark Twain was dead. A London based journalist working on a scoop sent a cable to his US colleagues pronouncing the grave news that Twain was passed.

The problem was, he was very much alive. He famously said “The Reports of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated.”

The next six  months will bring some of the fastest and most significant changes to how workers physically house themselves ever. Including a new, uber clean and hopefully fun office environment.

The office isn’t dead at all. We’ve got yet another version of the workplace of the future developing before our very eyes. I for one can’t wait to see it.

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners:" corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. Play Your Game

jerry-yu-HRo2pfbVulQ-unsplash.jpg

The United States Hockey team was slacking off. Coach Herb Brooks could see it; his team was not taking this seriously. Each man was born to be a hockey player and this series of games was the most important of their life. To say Brooks was frustrated was an understatement.

After that exhibition game against Norway, U.S. Coach Herb Brooks, played by actor Kurt Russell in the 2004 movie Miracle, had his assistant coach line the players up at one end of the rink. At each whistle the athletes were required to skate hard the entire length of the rink. This drill, which is known as a “bag skate,” is basically a wind sprint on ice. It ain’t easy even if you’re in tip top shape.

The bag skate went on for a couple of hours till one of the players, out of breath and desperate for a break simply blurted out his name. Then the coach looked at him and said, “Who do you play for?” The player responded: “The United States of America!” Brooks headed off the ice and dismissed the group, saying “Gentlemen, that is all.”

My wife Karen and I watched the movie recently for some positive mental nutrition. Coach Brooks is full of wonderful advice. Watch the locker room speech on You Tube if you get a chance…simply amazing.

2. When Crisis Strikes, Lead With Humanity

Oliver Furrer/Getty Images

Oliver Furrer/Getty Images

The writer George Saunders has a fitting analogy for the current Covid-19 moment: We’ve slipped on ice but haven’t hit the pavement yet. We’re caught in a suspended state between losing control and feeling the full impact.

The comparison points to a paradoxical tension that leaders must manage: providing direction, guidance, and reassurance while acknowledging that the path ahead isn’t clear. Doing one thing without the other doesn’t work. Both are needed to help people find the clarity and strength to move forward.

Balancing this tension requires leaders to lead with humanity and do a few important things.

3. 4 Actions to Be a Strong Leader During COVID-19 Disruption

Capture.JPG

Where executives focus during times of disruption and upheaval will define them as leaders.

COVID-19 is causing a humanitarian crisis of global proportions, with hundreds of thousands of lives disrupted. Sadly, we’re not nearing the end of the crisis.

In my day-to-day, I work with executive leaders and their teams on preparing for enterprise transformation. It’s no surprise that I’ve been musing for a while on what makes a great leader.

In recent days, I’ve observed how COVID-19 is a test case for good and bad leadership. In my opinion, the leader’s primary responsibility is to keep the team safe, cohesive and productive. But what should a leader be focused on in the midst of a global disruption?

Leaders at any level can take four specific actions. These actions aren’t the only ones, but some of them might be missed in the rush to create an effective response.

4. How Coronavirus Will Change Air Travel

Associated Press

Associated Press

Across the U.S., airports are ghostly quiet, hosting barely 5% of the number of travelers who passed through them at this time last year. When the coronavirus pandemic eases, it won’t be a quick return to normal. New health screening and safety measures promise to further complicate travel, and airlines will be shrunken versions of their former selves, with reduced route networks and a transformed in-flight experience.

It could take two to five years before passenger numbers return to the go-go levels of 2019, says Helane Becker, an analyst with the investment bank Cowen, and U.S. airlines are downsizing accordingly—she expects them to end the year 20% to 30% smaller than at the start. Safety worries will be compounded by a deep, sudden recession that is putting millions out of work and deeper into debt. “If you’re lucky enough to have a landlord who lets you defer rent, you have to pay that back and your credit card bills before you can think about going to Disney World,” she says.

Here’s how travel will change for those who are able to afford it.

5. Top working from home tips from around the world

p089tk33.jpg

arlier this month we shared expert insights for maintaining productivity while working from home during Covid-19. Many of you subsequently shared your own stories and tips, which included both practices that follow common advice and new and creative ideas.

Several recognised that the pandemic makes working from home far more challenging than usual; people are sharing workspaces with family and dealing with anxiety, stress and other mental health problems.

Sarah M, a service desk analyst from the UK, admits she’s finding the isolation rather “depressing” and urges others not to take day-to-day human interaction for granted. Haralds Gabrans, a digital marketing manager from Latvia, says he’s struggling to accept that this is “the new normal”, and that it will go on for more than a few weeks.

Despite the challenges, many have discovered working from home amid a pandemic can still be a productive and even rewarding experience with the right mindset and behaviours.

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

Play Your Game

jerry-yu-HRo2pfbVulQ-unsplash.jpg

The United States Hockey team was slacking off. Coach Herb Brooks could see it; his team was not taking this seriously. Each man was born to be a hockey player and this series of games was the most important of their life. To say Brooks was frustrated was an understatement.

After that exhibition game against Norway, U.S. Coach Herb Brooks, played by actor Kurt Russell in the 2004 movie Miracle, had his assistant coach line the players up at one end of the rink. At each whistle the athletes were required to skate hard the entire length of the rink. This drill, which is known as a “bag skate,” is basically a wind sprint on ice. It ain’t easy even if you’re in tip top shape.

The bag skate went on for a couple of hours till one of the players, out of breath and desperate for a break simply blurted out his name. Then the coach looked at him and said, “Who do you play for?” The player responded: “The United States of America!” Brooks headed off the ice and dismissed the group, saying “Gentlemen, that is all.”

My wife Karen and I watched the movie recently for some positive mental nutrition. Coach Brooks is full of wonderful advice. Watch the locker room speech on You Tube if you get a chance…simply amazing.

At one point in the movie the team is in competition on the ice and Brooks yells “PLAY YOUR GAME!” He didn’t say play the game. He challenged each individual to play their own game. Very smart.

I’ve been thinking about that advice to Play Your Game for a few days now. How can we put that sentiment to work in our chosen career in light of the crisis around us?

Well, I can’t tell you how to skate or how to hold your stick, but there are some themes I see for service providers supporting clients during this crisis:

Creative

We are all immersed on calls addressing our specialty and issues pertinent to what we do for a living. Don’t take your specialized knowledge shared on these calls for granted. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky famously said: “Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Bringing new ideas in this fast-moving pandemic environment can be helpful for service providers and game changing for clients. Be intentional about being a thought leader.

Courage

Remaining calm and being a leader is always in style, but now more than ever. As a service provider you can take a somewhat dispassionate view of business problems. Hard decisions are coming in corporate America and you are in a unique position to help decision makers and firm their resolve.

Caring

I start every call now asking about family. I end every call talking about the individual on the other end of the line. Authentically listening and caring now is so important. Stress and panic are still rampant. People generally assume you know what you are doing…what they really care about is how you make them feel.

Hustle

One of the formative Harvard Business Review articles of all time is “Hustle as a Strategy.” The article was written in September of 1986 but the sentiment is still very valid today. Getting out of bed and getting after it every. single. day. is critical.

“The only way to make the vision real is through superior execution. That’s the key. It’s the resulting hustle that outlasts…and wins against unremitting competition.”

Hope

Every storm runs out of rain. I love that saying. Reminding decision makers of this fact can give them important perspective. When you are pointing the firehose at a structure fire, it’s hard to see the future. We’ve been through wars, pandemics and all manner of crisis before. We will get through this.

Play On

If Coach Brooks were here with us today, I can hear him saying with his Minnesota accent: “The name on the front of your jersey is far more important than the one on the back. You were born to be service providers and this is YOUR time!”

Every morning as you step into your virtual office, you can yell to no one in particular, "Put me in Coach!" I'll know exactly what you mean.

Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners:" corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. Don’t Let Uncertainty Paralyze You

jermzlee/Getty Images

jermzlee/Getty Images

When confronting a situation freighted with anxiety and ambiguity — a pandemic, a recession, a job loss, an unwanted family change — most of us can imagine no upside. We become paralyzed, caught in a state I call unproductive uncertainty. But some can see their way through such moments and find a positive path forward. How?

For the past five years I have studied people who excel in the face of uncertainty. My subjects have included innovators, entrepreneurs, CEOs, and Nobel prizewinners — along with gamblers, paramedics, and surfers. I’ve identified the approaches they use to navigate turbulent times and discover the potential hidden within them. In this article I share three habits that can help you develop your own “uncertainty capability.”

Open Your Eyes to All Options, Present and Future

When threatened with unproductive uncertainty, we may become so focused on the immediate situation that we overlook the broader possibilities. This not only creates disquiet but can also lead us to make rash decisions or forgo opportunities because we don’t even recognize them. Psychologist call this tendency to miss the bigger picture status quo biasbig-fish-small-pond effect, and relative deprivation.

2. Rally

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It was a beautiful Sunday morning at 7:59 AM. Partly cloudy skies, a soft breeze and cool temps as is usual in December. All was well in the beautiful paradise that is Hawaii. The seas were calm and the sailors were already hard at work cleaning their ships – a process that never seemed to end.

Then as one, they heard the sound. As the clock flipped to 8:00 AM the sailors heard what first sounded like a mosquito, then it got louder. In lockstep thousands realized what was happening. Pearl Harbor was under attack. Immediately, terror broke out as the battle ensued. 

The next day, December 7th, 1942, President Roosevelt addressed a nation in panic. The people of the day were absolutely terrified and the economy locked up. It’s hard to understand how terrible things were in the days after the attack – now 79 years later. But make no mistake, every man, woman and child was suddenly thrown into an emotional shock like never before in their lives.

3. What Zoom backgrounds say about our quarantined lives

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The owner of your company sits in a mansion during an all-office Zoom town hall. A coworker’s houseplants look unhealthy, their room messy. Your parents cook dinner in your nostalgic childhood kitchen. A friend reclines in bed, talking just before going to sleep, against a backdrop of wrinkled sheets. In COVID-19 quarantine, our constant video chats come with an added, sometimes involuntary, edge of domestic voyeurism and exhibitionism.

Advances in digital technology have a way of inducing new habits that in turn create new forms of social etiquette and signaling, because humanity can’t seem to help itself when it comes to claiming individuality. For early-internet forum posting it was the avatar or the signature; for instant-messaging it was the evocative away message; for Instagram the like-grabbing selfie; and for Slack the emoji response or aggressive DM.

During the pandemic, communication, particularly professional communication, has turned to video chat for many of us. As this platform becomes the new default of interaction, we also have to contend with it as a means of self-expression, which primarily occurs in the background of the window—the Zoom frame or FaceTime square.

4. CRE Firms Step Up During Coronavirus Crisis

Preservation Dallas

Preservation Dallas

During this uncertain time, commercial real estate firms are finding ways to make a difference in markets across the country. Some are sending a portion of rent proceeds to healthcare workers on the front lines, some are donating space for medical facilities and storing supplies, some large corporate CEOs are forgoing annual salaries, and others are encouraging donations to local neighborhoods in need.

On a conference call last week, Prologis discussed how it is contributing to the industry during COVID-19. One of the ways is through its Space for Good program. This program provides temporary rent-free space in its distribution facilities to provide disaster relief and help charitable organizations address seasonal and short-term needs—to the extent it has vacancies in a relevant market. For the past five years, Prologis has donated almost $5 million in in-kind rent through this program, with nearly $850,000 donated in 2018 to 15 nonprofit organizations.

“We are taking an active role in bettering the communities in which we operate. In these troubled times, we’re enhancing these efforts to provide assistance across the globe in the form of direct cash grants, supplies and the donation of space at our properties through our Space for Good program,” says Gene Reilly, Prologis chief investment officer.

5. Virtual Office Tours Gain Popularity as Brokers Try to Adjust to New Normal

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Jordan Wade originally planned to spend the past few weeks zooming around the continent to Montreal, Sarasota, Florida, and Denver to join a client hunting for office space. Instead, the office broker is Zoom-calling from his Dallas home after clients canceled because of stay-at-home orders in the pandemic.

Rather than scrapping the tours, Wade works with landlords to set up tenant self-guided tours with an assist using the FaceTime app. Property owners unlock an office space at designated times for the tenant, who enters alone, but while on a FaceTime video call with both the tenant broker, in this case Wade, and a landlord representative. As the prospective tenant scrutinizes the space, the landlord rep can rattle off room specifications, give a sales pitch for the office and answer questions about whether gym memberships or other amenities are included.

"It gives the client the same experience as physically going into the space, which you can’t garner from a building flyer or floor plan," Wade, a tenant representative at Transwestern, said in an interview. "For the right client, it’s very well received and the landlords love it because it is keeping them busy and showing they still have activity in their buildings."

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!

Rally

dp-nws-battle-of-midway-20170603.jpg

It was a beautiful Sunday morning at 7:59 AM. Partly cloudy skies, a soft breeze and cool temps as is usual in December. All was well in the beautiful paradise that is Hawaii. The seas were calm and the sailors were already hard at work cleaning their ships – a process that never seemed to end.

Then as one, they heard the sound. As the clock flipped to 8:00 AM the sailors heard what first sounded like a mosquito, then it got louder. In lockstep thousands realized what was happening. Pearl Harbor was under attack. Immediately, terror broke out as the battle ensued. 

The next day, December 7th, 1942, President Roosevelt addressed a nation in panic. The people of the day were absolutely terrified and the economy locked up. It’s hard to understand how terrible things were in the days after the attack – now 79 years later. But make no mistake, every man, woman and child was suddenly thrown into an emotional shock like never before in their lives.

But here’s the thing: they pulled together as a people. Only 6 months later, The Battle of Midway occurred June 4-7, 1942. The battle is profiled in the 2019 major motion picture Midway directed by Roland Emmerich. Military historian John Keegan called this United States win “the most stunning and decisive blow in the history of naval warfare. The win was clearly a tipping point of the war.” The citizens of the US were suddenly jubilant.

As you might imagine, our nation back then was having many conversations similar to the current day in light of the Covid-19 crisis, except there was no Twitter and information was a lot harder to come by.

There are two points to the story I just shared with you. First our battle of Midway is being fought in current day before our very eyes. Health professionals, police and firefighters are on the front lines each and every day. Scientists are the generals and strategists working hard to defeat our common enemy. Sadly, we are losing some good people in the fight.  But know that we will RALLY as a nation – America is strong and has amazing history of resiliency. In fact, we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel in this Covid battle right now.

Secondly, we have to defend our own flank here in 2020. What does that look like for a corporate real estate professional? It means we have to protect our corporate brand and help as many people as we can. Right now, profit is second to the best service delivery of your life.

What is the issue with the brand, you say? There are those at other companies who are being predatory and taking advantage of this crisis. They are leading with fear and false promises. This is a terrible disservice to occupiers who are in great need.

As my friend Johnny Boyle said recently, people will remember how we treat them long after this crisis is over.

Let’s hold our head high and act with integrity. Client first, and act like a Boy Scout…trustworthy, loyal and helpful.

This crisis of 2020 is the battle of our professional lives. Our clock flipped from 7:59 to 8:00 and we were all shocked. But we are going to have a huge victory by investing in people by doing the right thing (whatever that is) now. Scout’s honor.

I’m Not Super Busy; Should I Be Super Worried?

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We’ve had a number of tough weeks in a row. Things are constantly shifting and many of us feel like firefighters. In normal times you’d likely have a breakfast, lunch and maybe a dinner with clients and prospects (and I have to be clear, those meals would be in real restaurants…not your kitchen!). But now you wake up at home and go through the same routine day after day.

Your day is likely spent responding to calls for help that are probably investing in relationships (translation, free work). You call people to check in, but have only a few deals advancing.

Then, strangely, on some days, your email slows, the phone calls stop and slots open up. Suddenly, you are not busy. Your anxiety level rises and you wonder what in the world is happening to your career.

Rest assured, this is OK and actually normal for this abnormal time.

I would like to suggest that before Covid-19. you and I were both too busy. And I come with some high level proof. Meet an Italian economist named Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923). He studied income inequality in England and posited what is know as the Pareto Principle or as it is now widely know, the 80/20 Principle.

In the 1950s US auto manufacturers rediscovered the principle and used its power to improve line efficiency. Then a brilliant business writer named Richard Koch wrote a New York Times Best Seller: The 80/20 Principle; The Secret of Success by Achieving More With Less.

Koch says in his book: “What is the 80/20 principle? It asserts that a minority, a small number of causes, inputs or efforts usually lead to a majority of the outputs, results or rewards. So, most of the output results from a very small portion of the inputs. So, to put this literally, 80% of the outcomes in our life result from 20% of the time we spend. For practical purposes, 4/5ths of our effort, pretty much all of it, is largely irrelevant. 

PEOPLE EXPECT LIFE TO BE FAIR AND BALANCED, BUT IT'S NOT

80/20 is contrary to what we expect which is a 1-1 or 50/50 rule. For each amount of effort, we get an equal reward. 

The 80/20 principle should be used by every high performing professional. You can achieve much more with much less effort. The principle is one of the best ways of dealing with the pressures of daily life – especially life in the time of Covid-19

There is simply an imbalance between inputs and outputs, effort and reward. 

  • 80% of outputs result from 20% of inputs

  • 80% of consequences flow from 20% of causes. 

  • 80% of results come from 20% of effort.

Examples from Koch’s book:

  • 20% of customers account for 80% of profits

  • 20% of thieves steal 80% of loot

  • 80% of accidents are caused by 20% incompetent drivers

  • 20% of carpet gets 80% of the wear

  • 20% of your clothes are worn 80% of the time

  • Auto - 80% of NRG wasted in combustion and only 20% gets to the wheels

Therefore, in any population, some things are bound to be more important than others. There is a big imbalance between causes and effects, 

If you realize that a large proportion of results in your life are accomplished by a relatively small amount of inputs, then you can (1) identify those causes that have a maximum impact - your genius - AND you can (2)  eliminate or minimize things that are noise in your life. 

A few other examples of the 80/20 principle in action:

  • 1% of the words in the English language account for 77% of what is said

  • When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, the company had over 300 products in its line-up. He reduced that number to less than 10.

  • Jeff Bezos: "My job is to make only a few very high quality decisions per day."

My personal goal is to pull the right levers and then not be too busy. Cut, cut cut, what can I out of my business life that lets me focus on what I am really good at? Well, Covid 19 accomplished that for all of us. We have the time to focus on the most important things both in our business and in life. I am grateful to get rid of some of the noise in life, at least for a time.

So, you are not so busy? Maybe that is a GOOD thing! Find what you are the very best at doing, and improve that skill now.

When this crisis is over, there will be no stopping you. Vilfredo told me to tell you so.

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Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners:" corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. Practically Positive

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Yes, the black swan happened, and the entire world changed in a matter of a few weeks. Yes, there is fear and terrible sickness in our land. Yes, the markets are a mess. Let’s not even talk about our investments. It’s just a desperate and weird time.

As a result, mental health is front and center and something millions are dealing with now. This component of health is a major crisis that you and I are going to have to deal with head on and soon.

I’m going to make the hopeful assumption that you and your family are physically healthy or on the mend. Based on statistical probability you are likely healthy, for now. If not, prayers for your recovery.

2. How Rituals and Focus Can Turn Isolation Into a Time for Growth

(C) Torben Eskerod

(C) Torben Eskerod

These harrowing times are taking an emotional toll, even on those of us lucky enough to be hunkering down in our own homes. Our new reality—disrupted lives, fears of infection, worries about loved ones, the loneliness that can come with prolonged isolation—brings to the surface disorganizing feelings, from panic to despair, that a busy life might keep at bay. But there are ways to make this period of self-quarantine not only endurable but rewarding.

William James, the great philosopher and psychologist, observed that people are collections of habits but that we can rid ourselves of those that don’t serve us well. He counseled us not to “sit all day in a moping posture, sigh and reply to everything with a dismal voice.”

New habits can carry us ahead in an organized way, letting us heighten our sense of control over our days and nights and keep disabling feelings in check. We can focus more on the small moments that comprise our lives, becoming more present and endowing ordinary routine with deep emotional investment.

I had the opportunity—which, at the time, felt like a horrendous misfortune—to put that wisdom to the test as the primary family caregiver during my wife Joan’s 10-year struggle with Alzheimer’s disease. The long decline brought by a neurodegenerative disease creates a kind of slow-motion calamity. Life loses rhythm, direction, definition.

3. What Will Tomorrow’s Workplace Bring? More Elbow Room, for Starters

Ruth Fresmson, New York Times

Ruth Fresmson, New York Times

Many Americans are weeks, if not months, from returning to their offices and regaining a semblance of a normal workday. Given the recent layoff and furlough announcements, many are wondering whether they will even have a job after the dust settles.

But building owners and company leaders — and those who help them manage properties and design workplaces — have begun to anticipate the time when the shelter-in-place orders are lifted and people start heading back to the office. Those in the midst of planning suggest that the post-pandemic office might look radically different.

Returning workers can expect stepped-up cleaning and a reinforcement of social distancing. Hand sanitizer stands will probably be positioned in lobbies. Maintenance staff will swab door handles. There may be limits on the number of people allowed in an elevator.

4. What Happens When We Return to the Workplace?

Gensler

Gensler

The coronavirus has turned everything upside down. But, now that we’re starting to get the hang of working from home, our clients are beginning to wonder how they can prepare to bring people back into the office when the crisis subsides.

We know from new Gensler Research Institute workplace data that a well-designed workplace is still the place that people want to be. In the U.S. Workplace Survey 2020, we asked that very question – posing the options between home, the company’s workplace, a coworking space, or coffee shop. Unquestionably, the office was people’s preferred place to work, as long as it’s designed to support their work.

However, before we can ask people to return to the office, we’ve got to make sure they feel safe, healthy, and valued in their workplace. And, while it’s too early to understand the full extent of the new skills and habits we’re developing while working en masse from home, it’s not too early to start planning for how we can return hundreds of thousands of people to the workplace once the quarantines end. Here are some thoughts on the first steps companies can take in the short term.

5. How to Transition Between Work Time and Personal Time

PM Images/Getty Images

PM Images/Getty Images

Physical presence doesn’t always equate to mental presence. You could be sitting at your desk but more preoccupied about a home repair than the assignment at hand, or you could be at the kitchen table thinking more about the proposal you have to finish than the people eating dinner with you.

That’s why transitions from work mode to personal mode are so essential. And you have to make an especially intentional effort on these transitions when you work from home because you don’t have the natural change of context cues.

In my experience as a time management coach, here are some of the ways to be less distracted and more present whether you’re working or enjoying personal time.

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!