The attached is some great work by Christa DiLalo and her Atlanta research team and could be a proxy for the US market. I love her statement at the bottom that the economy is in better shape now than during the Great Financial Crisis. She says we have better economic diversity, favorable population trends and a strong housing market. I would add that our technology is far advanced in the past 10-11 years. Hang tough; we will get through this!
Cushman & Wakefield
The nasty plague had changed everything. Or has it?
The pundits are screaming that we will all work at home, even after the sickness has left our land. The office is toast and huge portfolios of office product will be as devoid of life as a Walking Dead set.
But let me ask you a question…are you prepared to say you will never again go to a restaurant? How about a ball game? Yes, we must be able to safely attend, but when we can, I bet you will. And with gusto.
But what about the office? Well, post virus, there will of course be some changes to how knowledge workers use the office. Don’t think for a minute, though, that it is going away. Prognosticators have been predicting the end of the office market and other breathless “certainties” for decades and every time they are wrong (remember the paperless office?).
Why Office Space?
Cushman & Wakefield economist Garrick Brown says the current Covid-19 pandemic spurned “a trickle up economic crisis, felt first by service workers. But as the impacts of their financial woes trickle up through the system, …almost every sector of the economy is going to feel an impact.” Then, as professional firms start issuing layoffs, workers will want to be highly visible. Put another way, Brown says, “out of sight, out of mind, out of a job.”
In the mid 2010s we saw a number of occupiers order people back to the office. This is because innovation is hard to maximize over a video meeting. A friend of mine calls the “aha” interactions that occur in the physical workplace “engineering serendipity.” I’ve made deals in the breakroom and had my colleagues share some fine ideas that they thought were just tossed away; I thought they were brilliant. The key to these interactions is they are unscripted and occur without warning. Hard to just happen by someone’s workspace in a Zoom.
The office projects culture and shared values. As C&W’s John O’Neill told me recently, “You can’t virtually manufacture culture.” To personify this idea of culture, think about an elite military squad vs teenagers in high school. Both have a culture defined in part by their physical environment. We’ve all had the experience of walking into someone’s office and immediately learning much about their company and their people.
Offices help salespeople deliver a message to prospects. The “marketing walk” is part of many presentations, and corporations love to have customers come in so part of the story can be told by their physical space.
Why do you think after the Great Depression many banks built branches with columns in front of buildings that were designed to look like Ft. Knox? The worried bankers wanted to project safety. This issue is still true today, even in light of massive e-commerce world. Especially in high dollar or high-risk decisions, seeing someone’s physical space provides psychological assurances that the sales promises can be delivered upon.
Offices are fun. I’ve had some great friendships develop in the office that will last a lifetime. We are humans and interacting is what we do. We have a deep seated and innate need to be together. If anything, the virus served to emphasize this need.
What Will Change
Let’s skip the return to work discussion for another time. In your mind, fast forward to when we finally have the much sought after vaccine and this thing is past us. Let’s also assume we are talking about “knowledge workers” who have control of their schedule and deliverables. Here are a few early peeks into the future.
Dedensification is going to be the rage. The virus popped up so suddenly and in such a terrifying manner that for some years to come, we will need our personal space and lots of it. Meeting rooms will of course be bigger and huddle rooms are no more. I personally think workstations will look like mini offices with floor to ceiling separations. Plus, high value workers will have one more reason to demand a private office – safety.
Ambiwork comes to the fore. What is this, you ask? Psychologist developed a term for people who present characteristics of both introversion and extroversion – ambiverts. We will indeed work at home more because (a) we can and (b) our remote work technology will improve even faster as a result of Covid-19. Put your capitalist hat on; there are many technologists who rightly see gold at the end of this virus rainbow. But we will continue to head into the office, because (a) we can and (b) see narrative above. We will simply have more flexibility and better tools to work anywhere on the planet.
The coming race to wellness will be like nothing we’ve seen yet. The architects and furniture types stand to make a fortune with new workstyles and all manner of products to clean, clean, clean. The HVAC folks will spin up all kinds of clean air machines, misters and the like, and the elevator engineers’ heads are spinning so fast you can see the steam. Much innovation is happening now and will be rapidly deployed later in 2020. I think 2021 could be the year of Mr. Clean.
It Will Be Fun to Watch
In 1897 a rumor swirled around London that the great Mark Twain was dead. A London based journalist working on a scoop sent a cable to his US colleagues pronouncing the grave news that Twain was passed.
The problem was, he was very much alive. He famously said “The Reports of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated.”
The next six months will bring some of the fastest and most significant changes to how workers physically house themselves ever. Including a new, uber clean and hopefully fun office environment.
The office isn’t dead at all. We’ve got yet another version of the workplace of the future developing before our very eyes. I for one can’t wait to see it.
The United States Hockey team was slacking off. Coach Herb Brooks could see it; his team was not taking this seriously. Each man was born to be a hockey player and this series of games was the most important of their life. To say Brooks was frustrated was an understatement.
After that exhibition game against Norway, U.S. Coach Herb Brooks, played by actor Kurt Russell in the 2004 movie Miracle, had his assistant coach line the players up at one end of the rink. At each whistle the athletes were required to skate hard the entire length of the rink. This drill, which is known as a “bag skate,” is basically a wind sprint on ice. It ain’t easy even if you’re in tip top shape.
The bag skate went on for a couple of hours till one of the players, out of breath and desperate for a break simply blurted out his name. Then the coach looked at him and said, “Who do you play for?” The player responded: “The United States of America!” Brooks headed off the ice and dismissed the group, saying “Gentlemen, that is all.”
My wife Karen and I watched the movie recently for some positive mental nutrition. Coach Brooks is full of wonderful advice. Watch the locker room speech on You Tube if you get a chance…simply amazing.
At one point in the movie the team is in competition on the ice and Brooks yells “PLAY YOUR GAME!” He didn’t say play the game. He challenged each individual to play their own game. Very smart.
I’ve been thinking about that advice to Play Your Game for a few days now. How can we put that sentiment to work in our chosen career in light of the crisis around us?
Well, I can’t tell you how to skate or how to hold your stick, but there are some themes I see for service providers supporting clients during this crisis:
Creative
We are all immersed on calls addressing our specialty and issues pertinent to what we do for a living. Don’t take your specialized knowledge shared on these calls for granted. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky famously said: “Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Bringing new ideas in this fast-moving pandemic environment can be helpful for service providers and game changing for clients. Be intentional about being a thought leader.
Courage
Remaining calm and being a leader is always in style, but now more than ever. As a service provider you can take a somewhat dispassionate view of business problems. Hard decisions are coming in corporate America and you are in a unique position to help decision makers and firm their resolve.
Caring
I start every call now asking about family. I end every call talking about the individual on the other end of the line. Authentically listening and caring now is so important. Stress and panic are still rampant. People generally assume you know what you are doing…what they really care about is how you make them feel.
Hustle
One of the formative Harvard Business Review articles of all time is “Hustle as a Strategy.” The article was written in September of 1986 but the sentiment is still very valid today. Getting out of bed and getting after it every. single. day. is critical.
“The only way to make the vision real is through superior execution. That’s the key. It’s the resulting hustle that outlasts…and wins against unremitting competition.”
Hope
Every storm runs out of rain. I love that saying. Reminding decision makers of this fact can give them important perspective. When you are pointing the firehose at a structure fire, it’s hard to see the future. We’ve been through wars, pandemics and all manner of crisis before. We will get through this.
Play On
If Coach Brooks were here with us today, I can hear him saying with his Minnesota accent: “The name on the front of your jersey is far more important than the one on the back. You were born to be service providers and this is YOUR time!”
Every morning as you step into your virtual office, you can yell to no one in particular, "Put me in Coach!" I'll know exactly what you mean.
It was a beautiful Sunday morning at 7:59 AM. Partly cloudy skies, a soft breeze and cool temps as is usual in December. All was well in the beautiful paradise that is Hawaii. The seas were calm and the sailors were already hard at work cleaning their ships – a process that never seemed to end.
Then as one, they heard the sound. As the clock flipped to 8:00 AM the sailors heard what first sounded like a mosquito, then it got louder. In lockstep thousands realized what was happening. Pearl Harbor was under attack. Immediately, terror broke out as the battle ensued.
The next day, December 7th, 1942, President Roosevelt addressed a nation in panic. The people of the day were absolutely terrified and the economy locked up. It’s hard to understand how terrible things were in the days after the attack – now 79 years later. But make no mistake, every man, woman and child was suddenly thrown into an emotional shock like never before in their lives.
But here’s the thing: they pulled together as a people. Only 6 months later, The Battle of Midway occurred June 4-7, 1942. The battle is profiled in the 2019 major motion picture Midway directed by Roland Emmerich. Military historian John Keegan called this United States win “the most stunning and decisive blow in the history of naval warfare. The win was clearly a tipping point of the war.” The citizens of the US were suddenly jubilant.
As you might imagine, our nation back then was having many conversations similar to the current day in light of the Covid-19 crisis, except there was no Twitter and information was a lot harder to come by.
There are two points to the story I just shared with you. First our battle of Midway is being fought in current day before our very eyes. Health professionals, police and firefighters are on the front lines each and every day. Scientists are the generals and strategists working hard to defeat our common enemy. Sadly, we are losing some good people in the fight. But know that we will RALLY as a nation – America is strong and has amazing history of resiliency. In fact, we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel in this Covid battle right now.
Secondly, we have to defend our own flank here in 2020. What does that look like for a corporate real estate professional? It means we have to protect our corporate brand and help as many people as we can. Right now, profit is second to the best service delivery of your life.
What is the issue with the brand, you say? There are those at other companies who are being predatory and taking advantage of this crisis. They are leading with fear and false promises. This is a terrible disservice to occupiers who are in great need.
As my friend Johnny Boyle said recently, people will remember how we treat them long after this crisis is over.
Let’s hold our head high and act with integrity. Client first, and act like a Boy Scout…trustworthy, loyal and helpful.
This crisis of 2020 is the battle of our professional lives. Our clock flipped from 7:59 to 8:00 and we were all shocked. But we are going to have a huge victory by investing in people by doing the right thing (whatever that is) now. Scout’s honor.
We’ve had a number of tough weeks in a row. Things are constantly shifting and many of us feel like firefighters. In normal times you’d likely have a breakfast, lunch and maybe a dinner with clients and prospects (and I have to be clear, those meals would be in real restaurants…not your kitchen!). But now you wake up at home and go through the same routine day after day.
Your day is likely spent responding to calls for help that are probably investing in relationships (translation, free work). You call people to check in, but have only a few deals advancing.
Then, strangely, on some days, your email slows, the phone calls stop and slots open up. Suddenly, you are not busy. Your anxiety level rises and you wonder what in the world is happening to your career.
Rest assured, this is OK and actually normal for this abnormal time.
I would like to suggest that before Covid-19. you and I were both too busy. And I come with some high level proof. Meet an Italian economist named Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923). He studied income inequality in England and posited what is know as the Pareto Principle or as it is now widely know, the 80/20 Principle.
In the 1950s US auto manufacturers rediscovered the principle and used its power to improve line efficiency. Then a brilliant business writer named Richard Koch wrote a New York Times Best Seller: The 80/20 Principle; The Secret of Success by Achieving More With Less.
Koch says in his book: “What is the 80/20 principle? It asserts that a minority, a small number of causes, inputs or efforts usually lead to a majority of the outputs, results or rewards. So, most of the output results from a very small portion of the inputs. So, to put this literally, 80% of the outcomes in our life result from 20% of the time we spend. For practical purposes, 4/5ths of our effort, pretty much all of it, is largely irrelevant.
PEOPLE EXPECT LIFE TO BE FAIR AND BALANCED, BUT IT'S NOT
80/20 is contrary to what we expect which is a 1-1 or 50/50 rule. For each amount of effort, we get an equal reward.
The 80/20 principle should be used by every high performing professional. You can achieve much more with much less effort. The principle is one of the best ways of dealing with the pressures of daily life – especially life in the time of Covid-19
There is simply an imbalance between inputs and outputs, effort and reward.
80% of outputs result from 20% of inputs
80% of consequences flow from 20% of causes.
80% of results come from 20% of effort.
Examples from Koch’s book:
20% of customers account for 80% of profits
20% of thieves steal 80% of loot
80% of accidents are caused by 20% incompetent drivers
20% of carpet gets 80% of the wear
20% of your clothes are worn 80% of the time
Auto - 80% of NRG wasted in combustion and only 20% gets to the wheels
Therefore, in any population, some things are bound to be more important than others. There is a big imbalance between causes and effects,
If you realize that a large proportion of results in your life are accomplished by a relatively small amount of inputs, then you can (1) identify those causes that have a maximum impact - your genius - AND you can (2) eliminate or minimize things that are noise in your life.
A few other examples of the 80/20 principle in action:
1% of the words in the English language account for 77% of what is said
When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, the company had over 300 products in its line-up. He reduced that number to less than 10.
Jeff Bezos: "My job is to make only a few very high quality decisions per day."
My personal goal is to pull the right levers and then not be too busy. Cut, cut cut, what can I out of my business life that lets me focus on what I am really good at? Well, Covid 19 accomplished that for all of us. We have the time to focus on the most important things both in our business and in life. I am grateful to get rid of some of the noise in life, at least for a time.
So, you are not so busy? Maybe that is a GOOD thing! Find what you are the very best at doing, and improve that skill now.
When this crisis is over, there will be no stopping you. Vilfredo told me to tell you so.
1) Stay Positive
2) You Can Do It
3) Please
4) How Can I Help?
5) Thank You
6) I’ve Got Your Back
7) I Believe in You
8) I Love You
9) You Matter
10) The Best is Yet to Come
Stay well, friends and happy holidays to all that celebrate.
This post inspired by Jon Gordon
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth” – Mike Tyson
Yes, the black swan happened, and the entire world changed in a matter of a few weeks. Yes, there is fear and terrible sickness in our land. Yes, the markets are a mess. Let’s not even talk about our investments. It’s just a desperate and weird time.
As a result, mental health is front and center and something millions are dealing with now. This component of health is a major crisis that you and I are going to have to deal with head on and soon.
I’m going to make the hopeful assumption that you and your family are physically healthy or on the mend. Based on statistical probability you are likely healthy, for now. If not, prayers for your recovery.
Given the assumption of physical health, what are we to do as business leaders in the coming weeks and months? Do we allow ourselves to be mired in fear and loathing? Do we succumb to the panic and desperation that are ruining the lives of millions? Or, is there another mindset that we could adopt?
I’ve been thinking about this hard for days now and I want to share some ideas with you. Instead of miring in desperation, I vote that we go a different direction and become what I am calling practically positive.
Put a Pep in Your Step
This approach of becoming practically positive acknowledges the rough things that are happening in our world. But my suggested way of thinking allows us to still move ahead to defeat fear and seek out joy and happiness in life.
We start by looking under every rock to find the good things in life. Psychologists call this approach “reframing.” I call it the right thing to do every day, but especially in the days and weeks ahead.
Here are a few tips, partially provided from my friend Tommy Newberry (who wrote a whole book about Joy):
Actively seek positive mental nutrition by looking for positive news, great happenings in our world and the amazing human kindness that is springing to life around the globe. There are many resources, but here is just one idea: check out Some Good News by John Kransiski
Write down 10 things you are grateful for every morning. Keep the list in your pocket and refresh every few days. The more you do this, the more you will train your brain to look for the good in your life.
Do away with the survival mindset and instead shift your brain to thriving in the near future.
Use the current difficulty to accelerate personal growth. Purified gold is the result of great heat. Get in top physical shape, get extra sleep and nurture your relationships with those closest to you.
Downshift to a short-term focus over the next 30 days. Make peace with your current long-term goals as they will shift; they will be different, but I bet better in coming months.
Make yourself more valuable by upgrading your business systems through online training. You should be the ninja of your technology after the virus is over.
If you’re a person of faith, now is the time to deepen your relationship with God.
Yoga and meditation are proven ways to provide calm and peace.
Think of the “OBT” - – One Big Thing you can do during this time, now that time is not so much of an issue. Write a book, learn a language, or learn to ballroom dance with your partner (there are many, many virtual resources to help with these and others).
Practice Good Fact Hygiene
Fear is running through the country and made worse with every screaming headline. I came across the idea of “fact hygiene” listening to one of my favorite podcasts, Fresh Air. Host Terry Gross interviewed virus expert Max Brooks. At the very end of the interview, Max made the following statement which made me sit straight up:
“Be careful who we listen to, because panic can spread much faster than a virus. We have to be careful (with information) just as if it were the virus. We also have to be careful what we put back out, as if we were spreading the virus. We cannot pass along rumors or misinformation. We must be critically careful not to scare people into doing irrational and dangerous things.”
We need to listen to experts like:
CDC
WHO
Dr. Anthony Fauci/ Dr. Deborah Birx
Local public health officials.
What we cannot listen to:
Random facts on the internet
Whispered conspiracy theories, many times about interventions by the US military or trampling of American’s rights.
Your uncle who knows a guy who knows a guy who heard that something terrible is happening or that “they” are not telling us everything.
Wash your hands and watch where you get your facts.
Down, But Not Out
We are not out for even a minute, people. Let’s do an “audit” of some of the things we, as a society, should be excited about:
If you live in the United States, we have highly advanced medicine and thousands of healthcare heroes who are standing by our side. The supplies of PPE’s and other tools needed are coming and in days ahead this problem will abate.
American ingenuity is alive and well. Look at just two examples: Tesla developed a new ventilator in six days and Abbot Labs developed a Covid-19 test that delivers results in 5 minutes. There are thousands of other examples of ingenuity...take a look around and you will be amazed.
Fiscal stimulus and the CARES Act will invest trillions in our economy. We learned from 2009 and lawmakers are being much more aggressive as “economic firefighters” this time around.
All of science is focused on Covid-19. This great article from the NYTimes says “Never before, scientists say, have so many of the world’s researchers focused so urgently on a single topic. Nearly all other research has ground to a halt.”
Hope Actually IS a Strategy
We live in amazing times, and we’ve seen the United States survive all manner of wars, attacks, depressions and evil plots. And yet we are the strongest nation on earth.
And you? You and I will be remembered by history and by our community for the choices we make in the coming weeks.
You are a leader in your family, your community and your company. People notice how you react. Strength and leadership now may make you the hero you thought you were when you were nine years old. Be the real hero of 2020.
You will certainly have a story to tell when this virus is all over. And make some extra room in a drawer for your cape.
“Don’t worry, bout a thing. Cause every little thing gonna be alright.” Bob Marley
Note: These are my personal views and not necessarily those of Cushman & Wakefield
As Social Distancing Enters our Lexicon, Office Use Trends Are Set To Pivot
Much ink is being spilled about how our world will change. Here’s one more data point for you: the densification movement in corporate office space is officially over.
We are working with clients who have employee populations that cannot work from home. Think about folks that handle calls that require sophisticated technology, privacy and monitoring such as financial services. Of course, those people need to be in an environment where they can perform their duties in a safe manner.
Here are two trends emerging right now:
De-densification of office space
Companies with on premise requirements for employees are looking for new space that is ready to go right now. They will move to spread people out in their existing portfolio and when they secure that new space they will quickly move employees to the new location.
Finding the new space is tougher than it sounds because inspecting locations is hard (though virtual tours are happening at an astonishing pace), and also because it could take months to get fiber and technology ready because no one is at work.
If offices are coming back in vogue, and I predict they will, then I want a private bathroom and a big bar. You can come by anytime, but stay six feet away with your drink in hand, please.
A and B workforces
In order to keep workers healthy, some real estate directors are working with HR to divide large groups of people doing the same kind of work into two different physical locations. This pattern of A & B workforces helps solve for quarantine requirements if someone becomes infected and has exposed other workers.
It will be interesting to watch how office space design is changing, yet again. But you can rest assured that the office furniture industry, architects and others supporting this sector are spinning up new approaches as I write this.
Turns out that “benching” is a very dense environment is so 2020. We are on to the next thing and it involves a lot more office space.
Note: These are my personal views and in no way represent the views of Cushman & Wakefield
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