Bookmarks: 5 Interesting Articles That May Help You This Week

Each week, I select a few articles that rise above the fray and hopefully help you on your journey in the CRE world. They pull from one of four "corners": corporate real estate, technology, management science and anything positive. I welcome your comments on these articles.

1. What Goes Down, Must Come Up

Is it a V, an L, a Nike Swoosh or some other “recovery” shape? I’m talking about the commercial real estate market, which as we all know, is not the stock market.

Let me start with a little story. In early September of 2008 we got the very scary news about the likely demise of the storied investment firm Lehman Brothers. I can remember the fear being palpable. I am not kidding when I say it felt like the world as we knew it was ending.

In the midst of this tsunami of bad news, I called my investment guy and asked him a simple question: Should I sell my stocks and go to cash?

He answered in an odd way. He took a deep breath and said, “Ken, do you believe the United States of America will continue to exist?” I paused and said, “Of course!” He replied, “That’s great, because if you don’t you need to buy protein bars and water. But if you do believe in our country, know the economy – and your stocks – will recover. Hold what you’ve got and just give it time.”

I reflected on that conversation a good bit last year as the stock market rallied to all-time highs. Boy, was he right.

2. A Surprising Way to Stay Resilient

DARIA KIRPACH

It is an important strategy, especially now. Reminding ourselves what we’re grateful for is one of the most powerful ways we can boost what mental-health experts call the psychological immune system. Researchers use the concept to describe a set of emotional processes that help protect our mental health, just as the physiological immune system aims to safeguard our physical health. A strong psychological immune system keeps us mentally resilient.

Many things we do to strengthen our physical immune system also support us mentally, such as eating a healthy diet, exercising regularly, getting enough sleep and finding time for pleasurable activities in our day. Typically, our psychological immune system kicks in naturally, although it is sometimes compromised in people who suffer from depression or another mental illness, who have low self-esteem, or who ruminate a lot, mental-health experts say. But right now, as we’re battered with coronavirus stress, it’s important we all try to actively strengthen it.

“Our psychological immune system is like a cellphone battery—we drain it more quickly in a crisis because we use it more,” says Jacqueline Sperling, a psychologist and director of training and research at the McLean Anxiety Mastery Program at McLean Hospital in Cambridge, Mass. “So it’s important to continue to recharge it.”

3. The U.S. Is Not Headed Toward a New Great Depression

HBR Staff/Icon Communications/Getty Images

There is no doubt that the coronavirus is driving a macroeconomic meltdown around the world. In the U.S. and elsewhere, heavy job losses will likely drive unemployment figures to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Fiscal efforts to contain the crisis are pushing deficits to levels last seen during World War II. Both developments have spurred fears and commentary that the crisis is spiraling into either a depression or a debt crisis.

But is it too soon for such pessimism? The intensity of this shock isn’t in question — the depth and speed of the fall in output is unparalleled and frightening. And coronavirus will also leave a structural macroeconomic legacy if economies don’t return fully to their old growth trajectory or rates. But it’s a long way from a macroeconomic shock — even a severe one — to a structural regime break, such as a depression or a debt crisis.

Price stability is the parameter to watch — it’s the key to a favorable macroeconomic regime. A break such as a depression or a debt crisis is marked by a shift to extreme deflation or inflation, respectively, and thus a breakdown of the normal functioning of the economy. Over the last 30 years, the U.S. economy has enjoyed falling, low, and stable inflation, which in turn, has driven low interest rates, longer business cycles, and high asset valuations. But if price stability falters, there would be massive consequences for the real and financial economies.

4. 4 Actions to Be a Strong Leader During COVID-19 Disruption

Where executives focus during times of disruption and upheaval will define them as leaders.

COVID-19 is causing a humanitarian crisis of global proportions, with hundreds of thousands of lives disrupted. Sadly, we’re not nearing the end of the crisis.

In my day-to-day, I work with executive leaders and their teams on preparing for enterprise transformation. It’s no surprise that I’ve been musing for a while on what makes a great leader. In recent days, I’ve observed how COVID-19 is a test case for good and bad leadership. In my opinion, the leader’s primary responsibility is to keep the team safe, cohesive and productive. But what should a leader be focused on in the midst of a global disruption?

Leaders at any level can take four specific actions. These actions aren’t the only ones, but some of them might be missed in the rush to create an effective response.

5. Atlanta Office Performance in Downturns

The attached is some great work by Christa DiLalo and her Atlanta research team and could be a proxy for the US market.

I love her statement at the bottom that the economy is in better shape now than during the Great Financial Crisis. She says we have better economic diversity, favorable population trends and a strong housing market.

I would add that our technology is far advanced in the past 10-11 years. Hang tough; we will get through this!

Your success blesses others. I wish you a great a hugely impactful week!